The Hottest and Coldest Housing Markets in America: Winter 2021
By Joshua Baum, Founder and CEO of Hilgard Analytics
Overview
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recession has had a tremendous impact on America’s housing markets. While apartment rents have gone down for some of the nation’s most expensive metropolitan areas due to remote working opportunities and less available amenities in the bigger cities, home prices have accelerated in almost every metropolitan area as the pandemic has increased the demand for more private living space, among other reasons. Using publicly accessible data from Zillow, this piece will rank the MSAs with the fastest and slowest growing apartment rents and single-family home prices in the United States. Additionally, we will rank the most expensive and cheapest MSAs for both apartment rentals and single-family homes.
Apartment Rental Market
Nationwide
The median apartment rent nationwide stood at $1,742 per month in November 2020. This represented a year-over-year increase of just 0.8%, far lower than the 3.4% rent gain during the November 2018 to November 2019 time period.
Fasting Growing Rents
The five metropolitan areas that experienced the greatest year-over-year gains in median rents were the Memphis (8.3%), Bakersfield (7.2%), Spokane (7.1%), Tucson (7.0%), Port St. Lucie, and Syracuse (tied at 6.9%) metros for the November 2019 to November 2020 time period. With the exception of Port St. Lucie, all of these metros were away from the coast and all were outside of the bigger and more expensive metropolitan areas.
Greatest Falling Rents
The five metropolitan areas that saw the greatest fall in rents year-over-year were the New York (-6.3%), San Francisco-Oakland (-5.7%), San Jose (-4.8%), Boston (-4.0%), and Washington, D.C. (-1.9%) metros during the November 2019 to November 2020 time period. Not so coincidentally, these areas have consistently been among the most expensive metropolitan areas to rent an apartment in and due to the rise of remote work and decline in big city amenities, many renters may have chosen to make the move to cheaper areas and/ or have moved into homeownership.
Most Expensive Rents
Four of the five most expensive metro areas to rent an apartment in November 2020 were unsurprisingly located in California. The San Francisco — Oakland MSA ($3,054) remained the most expensive area to rent in followed by the San Jose ($2,994), Ventura ($2,767), New York ($2,610), and Los Angeles — Orange County ($2,560) metros.
Cheapest Rents
The five cheapest metropolitan areas to rent an apartment in November 2020 were all found in the Midwest or the South, which also should not be surprising. The cheapest MSA being Youngtown ($742) and they are followed by the Wichita ($850), Akron ($911), Toledo ($924), and Little Rock ($940) metros.
Single-Family Housing Market
Nationwide
The median sales price for a single-family home nationwide stood at $288,383 in October 2020. This represented a year-over-year increase of 11.9%, significantly higher than the 4.9% gain during the October 2018 to October 2019 time period.
Greatest Price Growth
The five metropolitan areas that experienced the greatest year-over-year gains in median sales price were the Stamford (24.1%), Boise (21.8%), Tulsa (20.1%), Memphis (18.2%), and the Winston-Salem (18.1%) metros during the October 2019 to October 2020 time period. While Boise’s single-family housing market was quite hot before the pandemic, the increased work from home opportunities have made all these areas even more desirable due to their higher levels of affordable homeownership opportunities compared to the metros along the coasts.
Slowest Price Growth
The five metropolitan areas that saw the slowest growth in home prices year-over-year were the Las Vegas (2.6%), Toledo (4.9%), Jacksonville (5.6%%), Baltimore (5.7%), and Harrisburg. (7.4%) metros during the October 2019 to October 2020 time period. It is noteworthy that not a single metropolitan area in America saw negative housing price growth during the October 2019 to October 2020 time period despite a global pandemic that has cost millions of Americans their jobs and hundreds of thousands lives.
Most Expensive Prices
The most expensive metros to buy a single-family home largely mirrored the most expensive places to rent an apartment. The San Jose MSA ($1.24 million) remained the most expensive area to buy in followed by the San Francisco — Oakland ($947,121), Honolulu ($757,566), Los Angeles — Orange County ($755,673), and Ventura ($702,892) metros in October 2020.
Cheapest Prices
The five cheapest metropolitan areas to buy a single-family home were all found in the Midwest or upstate New York. The cheapest MSA being Toledo ($135,673) and they are followed by the Dayton ($163,195), Syracuse ($164,109), Rochester ($171,106), and Akron ($171,769) metros in October 2020.
Future Predictions and Conclusion
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the nation’s housing markets and it should be expected that at least some of the above trends will continue, especially if remote work opportunities continue to exist. Given the incoming presidential administration’s priorities, we at Hilgard Analytics predict to also see more Midwestern and Southern metros become hot apartment and single-family home markets. We believe this because more money will be invested in infrastructure and economic development programs in these previously ignored parts of the country and low and middle-income households will make the move to these places as they continue to be priced out of the coastal metropolitan areas.
Hilgard Analytics is a socially conscious real estate and economic development research consultancy offering services in residential and commercial real estate, sectoral employment, economic and workforce development, demographic research, and geographic information systems analysis. Email us at Hilgard.Analytics@gmail.com for a quote today!
About the Author
Joshua Baum is a highly respected urban planner with extensive experience analyzing residential and commercial real estate markets, researching climate action strategies, developing economic and workforce development plans, and organizing successful political campaigns. He has made appearances on KPCC (SCPR) 89.3 FM and has been published by Planetizen, the Abundant Housing LA Blog, the Daily Bruin, and Ha’am Jewish Newsmagazine.
Before founding Hilgard Analytics, Joshua worked as a Research Associate at one of California’s most prestigious economic research consulting firms. While attending graduate school, he participated in multiple fellowships such as the Summer Associate program at the Southern California Association of Governments and the Graduate Student Researcher program at the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies. Additionally, Joshua worked on several local political campaigns in Orange County during the 2016 election cycle.
Joshua received a BA in Political Science from UCLA and a M.A. in Urban Planning from the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. He can be followed on Twitter @JoshuaBaum93.
